The expectation of future Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees and Dearness Relief for Pensioners from the month of July, 2016 is on air after the releasing of January, 2016 All Indian Consumer Price (Industrial Workers) Index Number (AICPIN) by the Labour Bureau. The All-India CPI-IW for January, 2016 remained stationary at 269 (two hundred and sixty nine).
It is the starting phase of the calculation of expected DA/DR from the month of July, 2016.
It also mentioned that the in DA/DR from Jan, 2016, which is calculated to be 125% with 6% increase is yet to be announced by the Govt. and on other hand it is already included in Fitment Formula of new pay matrix introduced by Seventh Pay Commission to be implemented from 1st Jan, 2016.
The question whether the increase in 6th CPC DA/DR from Jan, 2016 will announced by Govt or the new pay/pension structure with zero percent DA/DR from Jan, 2016 will be implemented from 1st April, 2016, the future will tell this.
| Expectation | Increase/ Decrease Index |
Month | Base Year 2001 = 100 |
Total of 12 Months |
Twelve monthly Average |
% increase over 115.76 for DA |
DA announced or will be announced in 6th CPC |
DA rate as per 7th CPC Seventh CPC |
| DA July 2016 |
3
|
Jun,15
|
261
|
3053
|
254.42
|
119.78%
|
119% | — |
| DA/DR from Jan-2016 to be announced or be include in 7th CPC Pay Matrix |
2
|
Jul,15
|
263
|
3064
|
255.33
|
120.57%
|
125% | 0% |
|
1
|
Aug,15
|
264
|
3075
|
256.25
|
121.36%
|
|||
|
2
|
Sep,15
|
266
|
3088
|
257.33
|
122.30%
|
|||
|
3
|
Oct,15
|
269
|
3104
|
258.67
|
123.45%
|
|||
|
1
|
Nov,15
|
270
|
3121
|
260.08
|
124.67%
|
|||
|
-1
|
Dec,15
|
269
|
3137
|
261.42
|
125.83%
|
|||
| AICPIN Jan 16 |
0
|
Jan,16
|
269
|
3152
|
262.67
|
126.91%
|
131% | 6% |
| Expectation.1- No increase in total ACPIN in next 5 months |
0
|
Feb,16
|
269
|
3168
|
264.00
|
128.06%
|
||
|
0
|
Mar,16
|
269
|
3183
|
265.25
|
129.14%
|
|||
|
0
|
Apr,16
|
269
|
3196
|
266.33
|
130.07%
|
|||
|
0
|
May,16
|
269
|
3207
|
267.25
|
130.87%
|
|||
|
0
|
Jun,16
|
269
|
3215
|
267.92
|
131.44%
|
|||
|
Expected DA/DR from July-2016
|
||||||||
| Expectation.2- 5 points increase in total ACPIN in next 5 months |
1
|
Feb,16
|
270
|
3169
|
264.08
|
128.13%
|
132% | 7% |
|
1
|
Mar,16
|
271
|
3186
|
265.50
|
129.35%
|
|||
|
1
|
Apr,16
|
272
|
3202
|
266.83
|
130.51%
|
|||
|
1
|
May,16
|
273
|
3217
|
268.08
|
131.59%
|
|||
|
1
|
Jun,16
|
274
|
3230
|
269.17
|
132.52%
|
|||
|
Expected DA/DR from July-2016
|
||||||||
| Expectation.3- 5 points decline in total ACPIN in next 5 months |
-1
|
Feb,16
|
268
|
3167
|
263.92
|
127.99%
|
130% | 5% |
|
-1
|
Mar,16
|
267
|
3180
|
265.00
|
128.92%
|
|||
|
-1
|
Apr,16
|
266
|
3190
|
265.83
|
129.64%
|
|||
|
-1
|
May,16
|
265
|
3197
|
266.42
|
130.15%
|
|||
|
-1
|
Jun,16
|
264
|
3200
|
266.67
|
130.36%
|
|||
|
Expected DA/DR from July-2016
|
||||||||
It is also interesting to know about the comparison of increase in DA/DR and increase in AICPIN. It is clear from following chart/table:-
You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation. The link for excel sheet is given below:
DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]
Press Release of AICPIN for Jan 2016 – remained stationary at 269:-
Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) – January, 2016
The All-India CPI-1W for January, 2016 remained stationary at 269 (two hundred and sixty nine). On 1-month percentage change, it remained static between December, 2015 and January, 2016 when compared with the rise of 0.40 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Housing group contributing (+) 1.11 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Groundnut Oil, Fish Fresh, Eggs (Hen), Goat Meat, Poultry (Chicken), Milk (Buffalo & COW), Garlic, Sugar, Bidi, Firewood, Medicine (Allopathic), Barber Charges, Flower/Flower Garlands, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was checked by Rice, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Masur Dal, Moong Dal, Urd Dal, Mustard Oil, Coconut Oil, Onion, Vegetable and Fruit items, Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.
Source: http://labourbureau.nic.in/Press_Note_CPI_IW_JAN_2016_EH.pdf
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